Project Description

In early 2014 ASDF Research assisted a political organisation with undertaking an analysis of polling booth data.

This analysis was designed to help identify target increases in votes for each polling booth to improve outcomes for the next Victorian State election.

The analysis included:

  • Identifying the % increase/decrease in votes for each booth when comparing the 2010 to the 2014 Federal election.
  • Extrapolating the likely change in raw number of votes per booth for the upcoming State election.
  • Using demographic modelling data to identify booths within pockets of communities who are more likely to resonate with the political parties’ policies.
  • Developing a calculation that takes into account these factors to set a target increase in number of votes per booth in order to increase the overall % of votes achieved by the political party.

This information will assist with setting targets for number of households approached by sub-region.

A further analysis was conducted using 2011 Census data to identify SA1’s where a high proportion of residents demonstrate traits that would result in them resonating with particular messages, so that volunteers can tailor their discussions when doorknocking. This analysis was accompanied by a tailored Google map to help visualise the variations.